LAST WEEK, while the Asia- Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) discussed multilateral engagement and trade deals, the real focus was on the Xi-Trump meeting which ended with very little agreement on one side or another.
The Chinese agreed to buy more American soy beans, while the Americans agreed to reduce their 57% tariff to 47%. To those paying attention to the United States-China trade war, the deal was effectively a truce that could easily be rescinded at any time.
Beyond all of the noise, the real goal, many believe, is autarky for both the US and China. Neither wants to be reliant on the other, because they value their sovereignty.
China does not want to be reliant on US software and financial infrastructure and the US does not want reliance on rare earths and consumer goods. Both have shown willingness to use these tools to pursue their interests and have made other countries more than a little worried.
That is why I don’t think there will ever be a deal. What both sides really want to be is to be autarkic, which is to say to self-sufficient within their own region or area of interest.
This is what multipolarity looks like. To be sovereign is to have the option to say no to trade and engagement. Neither China or the US (or any country for that matter) has that option, but they are working on it.
Because beneath globalized prosperity was the global sovereign and globalization was possible because the US acted as that sovereign. Now that China (and its allies) have openly challenged that system and sought to replace it, the only possible solutions are war, submission or separation.
What is happening now is separation and the Trump-Xi meeting is an extension of the existing truce to gather more allies and assets for the ineluctable breakup.
Maybe both sides will get what they want. Maybe they will fail. But as of this moment, that is where they want to be, and the world will have to pick sides./PN
