ILOILO – Western Visayas’ ratio of 56 dependents per 100 workers signals strong economic potential if investments in education, labor markets, and health are sustained, according to the Department of Economy, Planning, and Development (DEPDev).
“For the short and medium term, it is good,” said DEPDev Region 6 director Arecio Casing Jr. “Let’s say for a family in the lower income level, they have two kids, as opposed to six children. They can focus all of their resources to those two children. They can send them to school, they can provide adequate nutritious food and this will become better, as opposed to having six to eight children per household. Hindi mo mapa-aral.”
The region’s total fertility rate (TFR) has fallen to 1.57 children per woman—well below the replacement level of 2.1 needed to sustain population growth. If the trend continues, Western Visayas could face an aging population, labor shortages, and possible economic stagnation, Casing warned.
But he clarified: “What we should be concerned about is not the decline in numbers. We need to think about improving the quality of life for all, making sure everyone eventually experiences a ‘matatag, maginhawa at panatag na buhay’, which reflects our collective long-term vision. We need efficient and inclusive governance, effective policies, and sustainable solutions.”
When asked about the “ideal” population size, Casing said it depends on a country’s economic capacity. “It depends. For a small island, the ideal population size is small. For a large island, like Luzon or Mindanao, it depends on your carrying capacity. So, again, it’s a question of how you can provide the needed supply, the demand,” he explained.
Citing Singapore as an example, he said: “That’s their population size, but they are very productive. For the Philippines, we have a population of 120 million. So, are you capable of providing the services to your constituents? To the citizens of your republic? If you can, then you can maintain a large population size. But, if you are a poor country, you can’t afford to have a big population. You look around, in a third-world country, you see children on streets, not going to school, and not being provided basic food, shelter, and education. So, what is the ideal population? You put it in a context, how can you provide better for your people.”
DEPDev outlined both the benefits and risks of a shrinking population. Potential gains include environmental sustainability, improved quality of life, and economic adaptation through innovation and productivity. But challenges persist: an aging population straining healthcare and pensions, labor shortages, and underutilized infrastructure.
Still, the agency stressed that Western Visayas remains in a “demographic dividend” phase, which presents opportunities if managed properly. “This presents a unique opportunity for growth and development,” said Ma. Leah Letrero, chief of the Development Research Division of DEPDev-6.
“Ultimately, our goal is to boost productivity and maintain a strong workforce, even in the face of a declining population. By investing in education and job creation now, we are laying the groundwork for a sustainable and resilient economy that can thrive in the long term, regardless of demographic shifts,” added Roxanne Yap, supervising economic development specialist of the Policy Formulation and Planning Division./PN
