ILOILO – The El Niño phenomenon is gradually weakening this May, which could lead to increased rainfall in some parts of the region, according to the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA).
“We are still experiencing El Niño, but its effects are noticeably diminishing,” said Engineer Ferdinand Rubin Jr., a PAGASA weather specialist in Iloilo.
As the El Niño weakens, the likelihood of localized thunderstorms, bringing sporadic rains particularly to agricultural and mountainous areas, is expected to increase throughout the week, Rubin told Panay News.
With the diminishing intensity of El Niño, cloud formation is likely to increase, a contrast to previous months when El Niño was stronger and reduced the likelihood of rainfall, he added.
“As we move toward the rainy season, we expect more frequent rains starting this month, mainly due to localized thunderstorms,” said Rubin.
However, the onset of the rainy season might be slightly delayed as the region is still transitioning from the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) to a neutral phase, he clarified.
The rainy season typically begins in early to mid-June, but this year it might start a bit later, said Rubin.
Despite the weakening El Niño, high heat indexes are still expected in May.
PAGASA Iloilo recorded a 45-degree Celsius heat index on May 12 and 13, marking some of the highest temperatures observed in the region following a 46-degree Celsius index on April 27.
“The weakening El Niño and the high heat index are separate issues. While El Niño generally reduces our rainfall, it does not directly affect the heat index, which is influenced by temperature and moisture levels,” Rubin clarified.
The persistent hot and dry season may keep the heat index above 40 degrees Celsius until the rainy season commences, he said.
For the remainder of the year, PAGASA anticipates that between 10 and 13 typhoons will enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility from May through October.
Due to the impact of El Niño on the agricultural sector, two provinces in the region, Antique and Iloilo, have already declared a state of calamity./PN
