SINCE January, I’ve avoided writing about the war in the Hormuz. I did it because I did not want to comment until after the situation is over and everyone’s cards are on the table.
For starters, let me give a disclaimer that the Hormuz War was a very risky operation that could have easily led to a devastating outcome, and that United States President Donald Trump was taking a big risk in even considering it.
However, Trump did not approve the operation out of a misguided notion of spreading democracy or human rights.
It seems that the Iranians were close to creating a ballistic missile system that was impervious to American military capabilities. From what I’ve read, we can thank the Chinese for this, who exported their missile technologies to Iran.
So the US had two options – accept a nuclear armed Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, along with the arms race and political instability that comes from it, or act.
The American President chose option number two, and what followed was an extensive air and missile campaign that crushed much of Iranian military capabilities.
Most of the military operation ended weeks ago. Now, we are well into the negotiation phase, where both sides are discussing:
A) who have sovereignty over the Hormuz (Iran or the “international community”), and
B) whether or not Iran gets to enrich fission materials.
Both are interlinked.
From what I can see, the Hormuz issue is being dealt with by a combination of sanctions, military operations and pipelines that reroute energy flows outside of the Hormuz chokepoint.
If Iran loses Hormuz, and if they run out of money, Iran will have no choice but to surrender on fission materials.
This is where we are right now, but assuming the Iranians agree to a deal, the problem will not end there. The US and its GCC partners will still have to worry about enforcement. Nuclear weapons, along with Hormuz were supposed to be Iran’s leverage. This war, despite its damage to the global economy, aimed to remove both.
If the US can finalize the deal, and if they enforce it, this will have far reaching geopolitical repercussions for decades to come./PN
