THE PHILIPPINES ranks among the 50 countries most vulnerable to a surge in food prices if energy and fertilizer costs remain elevated amid the Middle East conflict and the coming El Niño develops into an extreme weather event, Nomura Global Markets Research said.
The Philippines ranked 21st out of 110 countries in Nomura’s Food Price Vulnerability Index. The index measures exposure to sharp food price increases based on nominal gross domestic product (GDP) per capita in US dollars at market exchange rates, the share of food in total household consumption, and net food imports as a percentage of GDP.
The country posted a score of 100.7 on the index, which estimated 2025 GDP per capita at $4,270. It also found that food accounted for 37.3 percent of total household spending in 2023, while net food imports were equivalent to 2.7 percent of GDP in 2024.
At the top of the index, Montenegro, Libya, Tajikistan, Lebanon, Syria, Senegal, Bangladesh, Kyrgyz Republic, and Venezuela were identified as the most exposed economies. Forty-eight of the 50 most vulnerable countries are developing economies, with a combined population of about 4.7 billion.
At the other end of the spectrum, New Zealand, Ecuador, Ireland, the Netherlands, Luxembourg, Norway, Switzerland, Uruguay, Denmark, and Singapore were the least exposed. Twenty-eight of the 50 least vulnerable economies are advanced economies, with a combined population of about 1.1 billion.
Nomura said the Middle East conflict has so far had a more limited impact on food prices than on energy, but warned that the agricultural supply-and-demand balance could shift quickly later this year if energy and fertilizer costs remain high and El Niño turns severe.
It added that any resulting spike in food prices could be amplified by rising protectionism in agriculture, financial speculation, and hoarding, echoing previous global food crises.
The bank further cautioned that a food-price surge would likely be more damaging than an energy shock, as it would more sharply reduce household spending on essentials.
Such a development could also push up headline inflation and risk unanchoring inflation expectations, and prompt stronger monetary tightening by central banks.
At home, consumer prices rose 7.2 percent from a year earlier in April, the fastest pace in three years, as higher energy costs quickly spilled over to other household essentials.
The April surge marked the second straight month inflation breached the central bank’s 2 percent to 4 percent target range. The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas raised its key policy rate by a quarter point to 4.5 percent at its April 23 meeting, with policymakers flagging a “deteriorating” inflation outlook. (Ian Nicolas P. Cigaral © Philippine Daily Inquirer)
