ILOILO City – Panay needs at least 150 megawatts (MW) of additional baseload capacity to protect the island from recurring power interruptions and sudden generation shortages as the Visayas grid continues to grapple with an “acute” supply situation, according to the National Grid Corporation of the Philippines (NGCP).
Engr. Neil Martin Modina, NGCP assistant vice president and head of Visayas System Operations, said the additional capacity is necessary to provide Panay Island with a crucial buffer whenever a major generating facility unexpectedly goes offline.
The warning comes as aging generating plants and simultaneous forced and unplanned outages continue to squeeze power reserves across the Visayas, triggering repeated yellow and red alerts and manual load dropping (MLD).
Atty. Cynthia Perez-Alabanza, NGCP assistant vice president and head of public relations, described the Visayas power outlook as “acute,” warning that the tight supply situation could persist.
“My understanding for Visayas so far is acute. As far as six months can be acute,” Alabanza said.
She said several generating plants have gone offline simultaneously, aggravating an already tight supply situation.
“Kasi meron tayong mga (power) plants na sabay-sabay nag-out. Many of them, matagal na,” she said.
Modina said frequent power interruptions in Panay Island and other parts of the Visayas have been aggravated by aging generating plants and unplanned shutdowns.
NGCP does not generate electricity but operates the transmission network and balances available generation against demand.
When a major power plant suddenly goes offline, the Visayas grid can quickly lose its reserve because of limited available generation.
A yellow alert is declared when available capacity is insufficient to maintain the required contingency reserve, while a red alert means available capacity is inadequate to meet demand and the required reserve.
When supply becomes critically low, NGCP may direct distribution utilities to implement MLD to reduce electricity demand and prevent a wider disturbance to the interconnected grid.
“We have no control over manual load dropping because kulang ang (power) generators,” Modina said.
MLD has resulted in rotational power interruptions in various parts of the Visayas, including Panay Island, in recent weeks.
Modina stressed that additional generating capacity cannot be produced overnight. Developing a new power plant could take around five years before it becomes operational, making early planning critical as electricity demand continues to rise.
He said the power industry must move beyond temporary measures and pursue additional dependable generation capable of supporting the region’s long-term requirements.
Alabanza said the return of large generating plants currently offline could ease the immediate shortage but would still leave the grid without the comfortable reserve necessary to withstand another major outage.
“When they come back online, it will normalize in a sense that there will be enough na wala alert, but not enough to have a sigh of relief. You need excess. Not just to meet the requirements, excess,” she said.
She stressed that adequate excess capacity is necessary to give the power sector enough time to pursue immediate interventions while preparing new generating facilities.
“That will buy you a couple more years to put in, number one, short and midterm solutions; two, start planning those plants that will stay in five to seven years,” Alabanza said.
Alabanza expressed hope that sufficient supply could be achieved by 2031.
“Hopefully, 2031, meron nang sufficient supply on both sides,” she said.
She lamented that earlier warnings about the need for additional generation failed to generate sufficient urgency because consumers had yet to experience the consequences of inadequate reserves.
“But the tragedy here is when it was early and no one felt the impact, no matter how often, how hard we shouted and how often we sent the message na we need more power plants, nobody paid attention,” she said. “Kasi no one was feeling the impact.”
NGCP officials said the recurring grid alerts and MLD episodes demonstrate the need to develop additional dependable generation capacity before aging plants and unexpected outages further undermine power reliability.
While the return of generating units currently under forced or unplanned outages could provide immediate relief, they warned that the Visayas grid would remain vulnerable without sufficient reserve to absorb another major plant shutdown.
The officials issued the warning during the Power 101 Seminar for local government unit information officers and media partners on Sept. 24, where NGCP discussed transmission operations, the prevailing power situation and measures needed to strengthen the reliability of the Visayas grid./PN
