LAST WEEK, the New Start Nuclear Proliferation treaty between Russia and the United States ended.
The Russians wanted to renew the treaty but the Americans refused… unless China was to join in as well.
The problem is that although China supports the treaty between Russia and America limiting nuclear proliferation, they argue that because China’s nuclear stockpile is small, they should be allowed to build more. And thus, we have the impasse.
In truth, this situation was inevitable. The nuclear non-proliferation treaty was a relic of a world gone by. We are now entering a new Cold War, one which will not necessarily be dominated by a nuclear arsenal but will still play a big role as a tool for deterrence strategies.
So what happens now?
China will continue building up its stockpiles. America will modernize and add to its own. Russia, where it has the money, will follow suit.
If the situation escalates, European countries may try to build up their own nuclear supplies, but that will require a radical transformation of their European countries and economies.
I also expect other Asian countries to push for their own nuclear arsenals, especially if the Chinese decide they deserve to be the regional hegemon.
Don’t forget a nuclear warhead is old technology. Many East Asian countries easily make a few, and if they do, it will unleash Pandora’s box. This is why China wants Russia and America to have continue their nuclear non-proliferation treaty.
The geostrategic calculus may eventually lead to more countries owning nukes, and that complicates the situation even if China does develop a larger nuclear weapons stockpile.
The silver lining is that the nuke is a weapon of the 20st century. The 21st warfare will involve cyber, space, electromagnetic arsenals and will only likely involve nukes when escalation reaches sufficiently high levels.
Even so, just because nuclear armaments are the last weapon of war does not mean that they won’t be employed if a situation becomes dire enough to warrant its use./PN
