THE PHILIPPINES will play an important country in the coming bifurcated world. Regardless of how the future geopolitical contest plays out, the Philippines will play some role in that outcome. We are basically critical real estate.
For the United States, the Philippines is a buffer state as well as a forward position for their military assets. We are part of the First Island Chain, along with Taiwan and Japan. Losing that means that China can challenge American forces in the Pacific.
Therefore, it is essential for the Americans to keep us in their sphere of influence, and they are doing that right now by binding us to their technological infrastructure.
For the Chinese Communist Party, the Philippines is one of the gateways to the Pacific, and controlling our waters and the territories within not only helps them secure their trade lanes, it also allows them to challenge the Americans in their backyard.
Therefore, China has obvious incentives to ally with the Philippines and to integrate us into their own trade and technological infrastructure.
Now, here’s the tricky part, what does this mean for the Philippines?
We are an important chess piece, but by no means unique. There is opportunity there, if we are able to rise to the challenge. For the Filipino people, the question now is which network do we want to align and ultimately be integrated with?
China has a powerful industrial base, but it’s economic system means it is export dependent. America is currently leading the Tech race, but they also have their fair share of economic and societal issues. Both countries also face societal and demographic issues that could spill out to our backyard.
It’s a difficult issue but that is the choice that we are facing. There can be no half-measures in this decision, no hedging. It’s either China or the US.
There can be no other options, and that is something our leaders should remember. This is no longer just simple diplomacy or economics. Global bifurcation is making the situation existential./PN
