LAST WEEK, I wrote that “(2025) marks a threshold of a sort, one that could ripple for years to come.” I believe 2026 will mark a continuation of that trend, with either an intensification or a rebalancing of global dynamics.
A few people on social media echo my thesis, thinking that 2026 will be worse than 2025, but I prefer to think of global trends as following a path of rebalancing rather than decline. There is structural degeneration, sure, but there are other trends in artificial intelligence and energy that makes what’s happening now as more than just outright degeneration.
Yes, the post-war order will continue to falter. Tensions will continue. Trade rebalancing will accelerate. The fiat-based financial system will continue to stagnate, waiting for a salvation that may or may not arrive in the form of stable coins.
But from that decline may emerge new ideas and new systems. I focus on what is new, what is emergent, rather than what is fading away, which is why I tend to not view global affairs as a one way downward trend.
Rather, I look at them as transformation and adaptation to a new set of circumstances. Tariffs, protectionism, the erosion of global institution, military tensions… I see all these as symptoms of transformation, and they will only continue or accelerate in 2026.
There is no going back. The old ways are being replaced, and although, this makes the future uncertain (something that terrifies a lot of people), it’s something I embrace. Those who are dependent on and cling to the old system will continue to cling to ashes, while those who commit to an uncertain (and admittedly dangerous) future may have the chance to write the story after the end of history has ended.
Happy New Year./PN
