AFTER the Cold War, during America’s Unipolar Moment, the Philippines found its niche by attaching its economic development to labor exports, that is to say through the remittances of Filipino “overseas foreign workers.”
Later, this was model was augmented by outsourcing and virtual assistance work, allowing us to get the dollars we need to purchase services, energy and vital goods from abroad.
But that system has run its course. The old system of training and exporting nurses, sailors and maids to foreign labor markets can still linger but it will be in decline. This is partly because of immigration restrictions, but also because the countries that are accepting labor will be severely disrupted by debt, artificial intelligence (AI) and geopolitics.
Some may simply lose the economic ability to accept Filipino labor, while others may seek to keep us out to restructure their own labor markets.
Secondly, there is the issue of AI. Artificial intelligence will likely wipe out a lot of jobs, and although, I do not know what those jobs will be. I am confident that our overseas workers and local business process outsourcing employees will be affected. It’s better to be ready than to wait and hope.
And there’s also the issue of politics. The Philippines will likely be forced to choose sides, and our government’s diplomatic engagements will determine who we can trade with, or send our workers to. It will also determine where we buy our energy and where we sell our goods.
The point here is that our old economic niche is not likely to last. The Philippines can no longer rely on the outside world for employment. So, we must be ready.
Not only will we need to restructure our economy and social system, we will also need to choose the right partners and hedge when that’s not possible.
The system where we could just export our labor may have sustained us for in the past decades, but it was never going to last./PN
