MANY ARE bemoaning the multilateral rules-based order. This system was predicated on the assumption that a weak country’s interests are just as valid as strong ones, that realpolitik can be overcome with enough dialogue, and that the global order must be structured around a set of egalitarian institutions.
Many are blaming United States President Donald Trump for this change, but the truth is that it started earlier, when Russia invaded Ukraine, when COVID-19 spread all over the world, and when the West failed to turn the Middle East into Scandinavian-style social welfare states. Trump merely looked at the trend, and allowed a failing system to die.
America’s demands for Greenland and the surgical strike on Venezuela may seem shocking, but these policies were driven by the same mindset that led to tariffs and immigration restriction: Self-interest.
America, and to some extent, the Western world, imagined themselves as driven by moral ideals. They flattered themselves by asking questions, like: “What’s fair? What’s good for global trade? Is this good for global institutions?” This was contrasted by the backward, “authoritarian” countries which framed issues as matters of “self-interest.”
Every trade deal, every diplomatic agreement, every memorandum was framed from this lens. But this worldview has failed. It has failed to stop mass immigration into Western countries, failed to stop China and Russia from becoming threats, failed to arrest economic decline and many others. So an alternative was needed.
Enter Trump, and America First. Basically, he represents self-interest. Everything he has done both in his first and second terms was based around self-interest, not multilateral equity. Prior Administrations asked the question, “What’s good for the world.” Trump asks “what’s good for America?”
And it won’t end with him. Trump’s successors will likely follow the same path as him, and the same is true with the populists in Europe if they win.
And here lies the death of rules the based order. Take away the United States, take away Europe and the rest of the Western world, and who believes the rules-based order? Who will protect and sustains its laws and institutions? India? China? Russia? I doubt it. They will erect their own systems, ones that favor their own interests.
America destroyed the old order by simply no longer believing in it. Europe and the American Left still cling to it, but it is an old creed from the 20th century. It’s time to move on./PN
