GERMANY and Russia are natural allies. In a world without NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) or the EU (European Union), I think it’s likely that the two countries will have greater ties out of common economic and political interests.
Germany’s high-end manufacturing and engineering capabilities match well with Russia’s vast resources. Together, they make for a formidable team.
In fact, this was the case with pre-World War 1 Russia and Germany. The countries have enjoyed strong economic ties with one another. It only ended when Russia became the USSR (United Soviet Socialist Republic) and further exacerbated by World War 2.
But this antagonistic relationship went against geopolitical and well as geoeconomic fundamentals, and was driven by ideology and government policy, and should be seen as a historical anomaly.
So when the Berlin Wall and the Soviet state fell, that old relationship began to return (partly slowed down only by historical inertia, and past fears of the Soviet Union). For almost three decades, both were able to rebuild their old relationship.
The war in Ukraine has interrupted this trend. For Russia, Ukraine joining NATO is an existential issue, and Germany – as a member of both NATO and the EU – is forced on the other side. But what if Germany was not part of both organizations? What if it was neutral, even?
The current geopolitical situation with Russia and Germany is a good example of how ideology and politics sometimes distort economic and geopolitical interests by creating an artificial context in which leaders make decisions.
Today, Vladimir Putin’s Russia is, I think, closer to the Tsarist model than the Soviet one. Germany, on the other hand, is struggling with its Nazi past, a past many are keen to bring up whenever Germans get out of line. Both are, in my estimation, trying to leave the past behind, and one way they can do that is by re-examining their relationship with one another./PN
