ILOILO City – Ilonggos are being urged to conserve water and prepare farms for potentially severe dry conditions as a “very strong” El Niño threatens to slash monthly rainfall by 60 percent or more toward the end of 2026.
The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) warned that El Niño could intensify to a “very strong” state during the latter part of the year, particularly with the onset of the Northeast Monsoon or Amihan season in November and December.
The weather phenomenon could persist into the first quarter of 2027, bringing “way below normal rainfall” and increasing the risk of drought and dry conditions in affected areas.
El Niño is a climate phenomenon characterized by the unusual warming of surface waters in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean.
In the Philippines, it is commonly associated with reduced rainfall, prolonged dry spells and drought in some areas, potentially affecting water supplies, agriculture and other sectors dependent on rainfall.
PAGASA Iloilo weather forecaster Leonor Silvestre said a moderate to strong El Niño is already being experienced, although its effects are being masked by the prevailing rainy season.
“Nasa moderate to strong El Niño na kita and by end of this year or sini nga tuig ay possible nga nasa very strong na ang El Niño. Pero indi gid naton mabatyagan nga El Niño nga mainit kay sa subong abi nasa rainy season pa man kita eh. So, maka-eksperensya kita sang drought or dry condition sa possible mag-end sang aton tuig or nasa dry condition,” Silvestre told Panay News.
With the threat expected to intensify toward yearend, Silvestre urged households to start conserving water instead of waiting for supplies to become strained.
She also encouraged the public to store water, if possible, in preparation for prolonged dry conditions.
Farmers, meanwhile, were advised to adjust their crops and planting activities to anticipated weather conditions to minimize possible damage to their livelihoods.
“Make sure lang nga mag-conserve sang tubig then ang ila pananum i-angkop sa weather condition naton,” Silvestre said.
Her warning echoed that of PAGASA Administrator Nathaniel Servando, who said most parts of the Philippines could experience way below normal rainfall as El Niño strengthens.
“This means 60 percent or more reduction of average rainfall in a month,” Servando said.
PAGASA said a moderate to strong El Niño is currently present in the Tropical Pacific and is forecast to continue until the first half of 2027, possibly reaching a very strong state before the end of this year.
For September, below normal rainfall is expected over most of Northern Luzon, while the rest of the country will generally experience near normal rainfall.
By October, below normal rainfall is forecast over Luzon, the Visayas and Caraga, while near normal rainfall is expected over the rest of Mindanao.
Conditions are projected to deteriorate further in November, when way below normal to below normal rainfall is expected across the country, although some areas of Mindanao may receive near normal rainfall.
In December, PAGASA forecasts above normal rainfall over most of Luzon and Western Visayas, while below normal rainfall will likely prevail over most of the Visayas and Mindanao.
Servando explained that even above normal rainfall forecasts should be viewed in the context of the normally low rainfall during the period.
“Normal rainfall in December is relatively low, and this might be due to the shearline or the northeast monsoon,” he said.
By January 2027, way below normal to below normal rainfall is expected across the Philippines, except in some parts of Mindanao where near normal rainfall may occur.
The entire country is projected to experience way below normal to below normal rainfall in February.
“The peak of El Niño will be from October to December, but impacts may vary depending on locations and the severity,” Servando added./PN
