IT’S OLD news by now, but it’s still worth discussing why the People’s Republic of China (PRC) agreed to increase “communications” with the Philippine government as well as reduce tensions in the West Philippine Sea.
Considering the situation, this is probably the best outcome we could ask for, short of China abandoning their claims to our seas.
There are many reasons for this. It’s possible that Xi Jin Ping and his people finally realized that pissing off different countries, in different regions simultaneously is a bad idea and have decided to pull back a little.
Another possibility is that they needed to refocus assets on domestic concerns or shift them to other potential theaters.
Or maybe they thought the diplomatic costs of continuing the standoff was not worth the effort.
Whichever the real reason may be, we should be glad for the shift in the PRC’s policy.
All well and good, but it’s important to remember that de-escalation is not peace. Our competing interests in the region have not changed. The PRC still wants control of the sea lanes, and unless that changes, I think that area will flare up again in the future.
The only way China will really abandon their claims is if they perceive themselves to be self-sufficient and are no longer reliant to trade coming to and from on the South East Asia region.
There are signs of this happening already, with China refocusing their own supply chain.
Also, autarchy has always been a thing throughout China’s history, so it’s nothing new. The trouble is if that self-sufficiency strategy involves Philippine or even Association of Southeast Asian Nations territory./PN
