ILOILO City – An estimated 733,000 families across Western Visayas could suffer the effects of severe drought by the end of February 2027 as a strengthening El Niño threatens to cripple agricultural production, strain water supplies and jeopardize food security, prompting disaster authorities to place the region under blue alert.
The Regional Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Operations Center (RDRRMOC) raised its alert status effective Sunday morning, October 11, activating key emergency response clusters as government agencies brace for worsening dry conditions expected to engulf the entire region by March next year.
The Department of Social Welfare and Development (DSWD) Region 6 warned that approximately 75 percent of the region’s estimated 972,000 families could be affected by drought, based on predictive modeling that assumes a 25 percent increase over the number of families affected during the 2023-2024 El Niño episode.
The projection translates to roughly three out of every four families in Western Visayas potentially requiring varying levels of assistance as prolonged dry spells threaten livelihoods, household water supplies and access to food.
According to the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA), a strong El Niño is already prevailing in the tropical Pacific and could intensify into a very strong event before the end of 2026.
Its effects are projected to persist through the first half of 2027.
Western Visayas is expected to experience below-normal rainfall in October and November, deteriorating into way-below-normal rainfall from December 2026 through March 2027.
With increasing dry days and rising heat indices, PAGASA warned that severe drought conditions could affect the entire region by March.
Farmers, fishers face greatest risks
The DSWD identified farmers and fisherfolk as among the most vulnerable sectors, warning that prolonged drought could severely disrupt crop production, diminish water availability, damage fishery resources and trigger substantial income losses.
Families living in local government units with a history of severe water scarcity are also considered particularly vulnerable.
The agency cautioned that escalating temperatures and prolonged dry spells could expose residents to dehydration, heat exhaustion and malnutrition, particularly among older persons, persons with disabilities and other vulnerable populations.
To address the projected humanitarian needs, the DSWD said its preparedness planning includes family food packs, other food and non-food assistance, and financial aid for affected households.
The estimates were presented during the Pre-Disaster Risk Assessment (PDRA) Scenario Building conducted virtually on October 9 by the Office of Civil Defense (OCD) Region 6 and member agencies of the Regional Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (RDRRMC).
The assessment was presided over by RDRRMC chairperson and OCD regional director Raul E. Fernandez, together with OCD Operations Section chief Atty. Melissa P. Banias.
The meeting examined the region’s climate outlook, water supply conditions and preparedness measures to address possible disruptions to agriculture, food security, energy, health and public safety.
Emergency response mechanisms activated
Under the blue alert status, the RDRRMC activated key response clusters to strengthen interagency coordination and ensure that essential resources and emergency assistance can be mobilized when needed.
The OCD leads logistics operations, while the DSWD handles food and non-food assistance.
The Department of Health oversees health-related preparedness, the Philippine National Police is responsible for law and order, and the Philippine Information Agency leads crisis communication.
Meanwhile, the National Irrigation Administration (NIA) reported ongoing desilting operations and the distribution of water pumps to farmers in coordination with irrigation associations.
The Jalaur River Multipurpose Project Stage II is also helping augment water supplies in certain areas of Iloilo.
The National Food Authority, for its part, committed to regularly updating authorities on the region’s rice buffer stocks to help monitor food availability as drought conditions worsen.
Member agencies involved in El Niño preparedness were directed to submit their respective programs, activities and projects to their sector leads for consolidation into a coordinated regional response.
The measures are intended to identify gaps in preparedness, monitor critical resources and strengthen the government’s capacity to respond before the anticipated drought reaches its most severe stage.
With hundreds of thousands of families potentially facing water shortages and livelihood disruptions in the coming months, disaster authorities are moving to reinforce preparedness across Western Visayas before the projected deterioration of conditions toward the end of 2026.
The blue alert underscores the growing urgency of protecting agricultural communities, securing water supplies and ensuring that humanitarian assistance is ready for families most vulnerable to the approaching drought./PN
