MANILA – The peso could slide back to the P53 level against the dollar in the first half, as markets look to global developments, an analyst said Tuesday.
A less hawkish Federal Reserve, optimism over US-China trade talks and falling world oil prices have contributed to the recent strength of the peso and emerging market currencies, said Vishnu Varathan, economics and strategy head at Mizuho Bank in Singapore.
There’s “no guarantee” that all three trends will be sustained, Varathan said. “Our sense is some of these will begin to falter,” he said.
The peso could hit P53.50 to P54 to the dollar by March to June, which is “not out of sync” with the region, Varathan said. The local unit opened at P52.39 on Tuesday from Monday’s close of P52.38.
“It’s not just peculiar to the peso, emerging market currencies, a similar threat runs through them,” Varathan told ANC’s Market Edge.
On the domestic front, worries over a widening fiscal deficit and election spending stoking inflation could weigh on the peso, he said. (ABS-CBN News)