FILIPINO households experienced a slight improvement in economic sentiment during the first quarter of 2026, though experts warn this stability remains “fragile” and highly susceptible to looming global shocks.
Around 9.2 million Filipino families saw themselves as poor, according to the latest Tugon ng Masa study by survey firm OCTAResearch. OCTA said this represented 35 percent of all households, which was down from 37 percent or 9.8 million families in an earlier survey conducted in December.
However, the research firm also cautioned that the apparent improvement 2 percentage point improvement also fell within the 2 percent margin of error of the study.
“While this suggests that roughly 600,000 fewer families considered themselves poor during the quarter, the difference is not statistically significant and remains within the survey’s margin of error, indicating that overall poverty conditions remained broadly stable,” OCTA said
The survey had 1,200 respondents and was conducted from March 19 to 25. OCTA said the findings reflect household conditions prior to the wider inflationary effects of the oil price shock associated with the conflict in the Middle East.
“As such, the March 2026 results may be best understood as a pre-shock baseline, before higher transport and food costs began exerting broader pressure on household welfare and food access,” the survey firm added.
OCTA said self-rated poverty fell by 12 percentage points in the National Capital Region and by 11 percentage points in Mindanao. But in Luzon, self-rated poverty increased by 3 percentage points, and in Visayas by 4 percentage points.
The pollster said this shows recovery is fragmented nationwide – it noted that self-rated poverty increased sharply in the following regions:
* Cordillera Administrative Region (up 37 percentage points)
* Negros Island Region (up 27 points)
* Cagayan Valley (up 20 points)
* Central Visayas (up 18 points)
* Bicol Region (up 15 points)
* CARAGA (up 11 points)
Meanwhile, self-rated poverty fell in the following areas:
* Northern Mindanao (down 47 percentage points)
* Eastern Visayas (down 18 points)
* MIMAROPA (down 17 points)
* Davao Region (down 14 points)
The survey also showed that 17 percent, or some 4.5 million Filipino families, were involuntarily hungry at least once in the first three months of 2026. This means 300,000 more families went hungry from January to March 2026.
Visayas saw the highest incidence of self-rated hunger at 26 percent, followed by Balance Luzon (16 percent) and NCR (14 percent). (ABS-CBN News)
